These 28 House Republicans won their 2006 re-election by less than a 10 percent margin, many against Democratic challengers who criticized the incumbents' anti-fair trade records. How have these 28 voted on fair trade? Will they be vulnerable in 2008 as public opinion continues to shift in a more fair trade direction?
AZ-1: Rick Renzi (0/8)
CA-4: John Doolittle (4/19 - 21%)
CA-50: Brian Bilbray (0/6, in previous terms)
CO-4: Marilyn Musgrave (0/8)
CT-4: Chris Shays (0/19)
FL-8: Ric Keller (0/10)
IL-10: Mark Kirk (0/8)
IL-11: Jerry Weller (1/15, or 6.7%). See here for a good Weller story.
IN-3: Mark Souder (4/15, or 26.7%)
KY-4: Geoff Davis (0/4)
MI-9: Joe Knollenberg (0/17)
NE-2: Lee Terry (0/15)
NV-3: Jon Porter (0/8)
NJ-7: Mike Ferguson (0/10)
NM-1: Heather Wilson (0/15)
NY-25: Jim Walsh (5/19, 26%)
NY-26: Tom Reynolds (0/15), faced a strong fair trade challenger last time around
NY-29: Randy Kuhl (0/4)
NC-8: Robin Hayes (10/15, or 71%). Faced a strong fair trade challenger last time who pointed out that he always votes wrong on VERY tight votes like CAFTA and Fast Track where his flip-flops make a big difference.
OH-1: Steve Chabot (0/15)
OH-2: Jean Schmidt (0/2)
OH-15: Deborah Pryce (0/18)
PA-3: Phil English (1/15, or 6.7%). His bad trade record is a major problem for English in his Erie district.
PA-6: Jim Gerlach (1/8, or 12.5%). Had a challenger who chose not to make trade a major issue, and paid the price in more working class precincts.
PA-15: Charles Dent (squeezed by with just over 10%) 0/4 on fair trade
VA-2: Thelma Drake (0/4)
WA-8: Dave Reichert (0/4)
WY-At Large: Barbara Cubin (2/15, or 13.3%). Trade was a big issue in this very surprising close race too.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the aisle, there was only 5 races where a Democratic incumbent squeaked by with less than a 10% margin. I'm betting that the 90%+ Democratic opposition to NAFTA expansion to Central America helped some of the most vulnerable members in heavy lean-GOP areas (Georgia's Jim Marshall and John Barrow in the 8th and 12th districts respectively, who campaigned on fair trade), while opposition to (or inconsistent support of) fair trade has made other more vulnerable.
Rep. Melissa Bean (IL-8) was made very vulnerable because of voting with corporate interests on CAFTA and other legislation. Rep. Leonard Boswell (IA-3) voted against CAFTA, but has only voted the fair trade position 26.7 % of the time. The other under-10%'er was Rep. Julia Carson (D-Ind., 7th district), who has a decent record on trade but has had health and other problems.